AGP Executive Report

Budget Watch: Chancellor John Healey is preparing a cautious first Budget as borrowing costs and energy prices rise. Reports say he will retain the £20,000 cash ISA limit, while scrapping gas standing charges could save 60% of homes about £45 a year. Business groups are pressing for lower costs and stable tax rules. Business Pressures: A record 738,144 UK businesses are in financial distress, though September insolvencies fell 3.6% month on month. Advisers warn firms still face rising costs, squeezed profits and weak hiring. Retailers say price inflation is accelerating, with 83% of adults worried about food prices. Markets & Investment: Santander UK expects more cost-cutting after nine-month pre-tax profit fell 6% to £1.2bn, despite higher income following its TSB acquisition. London-based AP Ventures closed a $300m fund to back early-stage industrial and energy technology, while UK mid-market activity reportedly hit its highest growth rate in nearly two years.

Budget and Borrowing: Britain is paying its highest five-year borrowing costs since 2008 ahead of Chancellor John Healey’s Budget. Business leaders want action on employment and energy costs, while investors warn that a lack of clear spending plans could hold back investment. Business Pulse: UK mid-market activity grew at its fastest pace in nearly two years in September, with NatWest’s index reaching 56.2. SMEs moved closer to stability, though inflation and rising input costs remain concerns. Retail Strain: Poundland’s preferred, fully funded rescue bid has been rejected, putting hundreds of stores and thousands of jobs at risk. Separately, the number of UK businesses in financial distress is reported to be at a 20-year high. Pay and Hiring: The minimum wage is set to rise by nearly 4%, prompting warnings that higher employment costs could make it harder for firms to create jobs.

Business Distress: A record 738,144 UK businesses were in significant financial distress in the third quarter, according to BTG, intensifying pressure on Chancellor John Healey ahead of his Budget. Hospitality, construction and retail are among the hardest hit. Banking: HSBC’s quarterly profit jumped 32% to $9.6bn, renewing calls for a higher bank tax as the lender announced $2.7bn in shareholder payouts. Jobs and Tech: Microsoft is offering voluntary buyouts to about 60,000 staff worldwide, including eligible UK employees, as it increases AI investment. High Street: Shoe Zone has closed 18 stores and reported a £1m loss, citing cost pressures and weaker-than-expected autumn sales. Energy Investment: A survey of energy leaders, including in the UK, found that while most see capital available, only 29% say there are enough investable projects, with grid access, approvals and infrastructure holding back delivery.

Autumn Budget: Chancellor John Healey faces tight finances ahead of Wednesday’s Budget, with high borrowing costs limiting room for tax relief as the government weighs household support and higher defence spending. Jobs and Tech: Microsoft is offering voluntary buyouts to about 60,000 eligible staff across the UK, US, Canada and India as it reshapes parts of its workforce; the UK share was not specified. Economic Signals: UK retail sales fell 0.4% in September and consumer confidence dropped sharply, even as business activity reached an eight-month high before the Budget. Storm Damage: Storm Boelo left thousands without power in Scotland and caused flooding that devastated businesses in places including Largs. High Street: Oxford Street’s first pedestrianised section opened, launching a major change to one of London’s busiest shopping streets.

Budget and Markets: Defence shares rose as Chancellor John Healey was reported to be planning billions in borrowing for defence, potentially through state-backed lenders. His Wednesday Budget is expected to prioritise market stability while offering businesses some relief from rising costs. Banking: Revolut has launched unsecured personal loans in the UK, stepping into a market dominated by high-street lenders as it seeks to become customers’ primary bank. Retail and Confidence: UK retail sales fell 0.4% in September, while consumer confidence weakened ahead of the Budget, adding pressure on businesses as Christmas approaches. Property: British Land has reportedly paused the next phase of its Canada Water scheme amid slow sales, high construction costs and weak demand. Energy: Foresight and Belltown are expanding their UK wind venture, targeting at least 500MW from repowering older sites. London: The first stretch of Oxford Street has closed to motor traffic under a £150m pedestrianisation plan, a major test of how the change will affect shoppers, retailers and transport.

Consumer Confidence: UK confidence fell 11 points to -24 in October, its sharpest monthly drop since the pandemic, as inflation and household budget worries deepen ahead of the Budget. Storm Damage: Storm Boelo left 82,600 customers without power and disrupted travel; flooded businesses in Largs face costly repairs and lost trade. Defence Spending: Wes Streeting says Britain must be ready for conflict within 1,000 days, as Chancellor John Healey prepares to borrow billions for defence but faces pressure over long-term spending targets. Banking and Crypto: UK banks logged 10,092 complaints in three months over restrictions on crypto transfers, though the figures come from a voluntary reporting tool and aren’t representative of all customers. Retail and Hospitality: Sainsbury’s plans to sell Argos for at least £120 million in February, while Heineken is urging pubs to promote smaller servings and alcohol-free options as weight-loss drugs reshape drinking habits.

Property: British Land has paused the next phase of its Canada Water regeneration project, as high costs and slow home sales put pressure on London development viability. Business Conditions: UK manufacturing growth picked up, but retail sales weakened as households tightened spending; business surveys also point to the fastest overall activity growth in eight months. Budget Pressure: Scottish business leaders urged Chancellor John Healey to cut taxes and support investment, while the government faces public debt above £3 trillion and limited room to ease costs. Investment: The government plans a £20bn capital boost for two state-backed lenders and around £600m for AI security, including a £100m biosecurity lab. Company Rescues: Research found that 44% of pre-pack deals involving former owners were followed by another insolvency, compared with 26% when buyers were unconnected—renewing scrutiny of “phoenix” deals and creditor losses.

Manufacturing: UK factory activity strengthened in October, with the PMI rising to 52.8 as output and new orders grew; employment still edged down, while higher input costs and supply delays added pressure. Consumers: Retail sales fell 0.4% as households cut back, despite a 0.7% rise across the third quarter, deepening concern over a weak Christmas season. Budget Pressure: Ahead of Wednesday’s Budget, Iceland boss Richard Walker urged Chancellor John Healey to ease business taxes and make hiring easier, while inflation stands at 3.5% and national debt has passed £3 trillion. Business Finance and AI: The government plans a £20bn capital boost for two state-backed lenders and has outlined major funding for AI security, including a £100m biosecurity lab. Energy: Approval for the Jackdaw gas field aims to bolster domestic supply as UK gas prices remain elevated.

Tax and Investment: Former Goldman Sachs chief Michael Sherwood has confirmed he is moving to Jersey, adding to concerns that rising taxes are driving wealthy investors from Britain ahead of next week’s Budget. AI and Security: The government has pledged around £600m for AI security and biosecurity, including £100m for a new lab and funding to strengthen cyber defences. Economic Outlook: UK business activity reached an eight-month high, but September retail sales fell 0.4% and consumer confidence suffered its sharpest monthly drop since the pandemic. Business Pressures: A survey of Scottish family firms found tax rises, inflation and policy changes among their biggest concerns; two-thirds also worry about cyber attacks. Growth and Investment: The UK and Oman advanced plans for a more than £1bn AI data centre in Salalah, expected to create over 100 skilled jobs in Britain. The government also says its latest red-tape reforms could save businesses £800m.

Defence Industry: Babcock has opened a Plymouth skills centre able to train 1,500 people a year and started work on a logistics hub to support Royal Navy submarine programmes. Business Climate: UK business activity reached its strongest level since February, but September retail sales fell 0.4% as households cut spending and confidence weakened. The Autumn Budget is in focus, with the government promising £800m in business savings from cutting red tape. Jobs and Investment: Amazon says it will create 30,000 entry-level UK roles by 2030, even as it cuts corporate jobs. Rolls-Royce is reportedly close to a £100m–£200m government subsidy for a new aircraft-engine demonstrator, while a report warns planned battery projects still leave a potential 55 GWh annual supply gap by 2035. UK–Oman Partnership: A UK-founded firm is developing a data centre in Oman, with the first phase expected to exceed £1bn; the state visit also brought new commitments on investment and export finance. Scottish Firms: Rising wage bills helped cut pre-tax profits at Scotland’s largest owner-managed businesses by 15%, despite turnover growth.

Business Activity: UK firms had their strongest month since February, with the October PMI rising to 53.1 as new orders grew and hiring resumed. AI-related demand helped, but rising costs could strengthen the case for Bank of England rate hikes. Household Spending: Retail sales fell 0.4% in September, more than expected, while consumer confidence plunged to its lowest level since the pandemic’s onset, adding pressure on retailers ahead of the Budget. Business Costs: The Chancellor announced measures intended to save firms almost £800 million a year by simplifying reporting, improving compliance guidance and extending tariff suspensions. Investment: Singapore-based Meta For Data plans to invest £50 million in the UK over five years, with 500 jobs expected across London and Manchester. Hospitality: Heineken warned that weight-loss drugs could curb beer sales and urged pubs to offer smaller servings and more alcohol-free options.

North Sea Energy: The government has approved the Jackdaw gasfield, with production potentially starting this winter. Ministers say it could add nearly £3bn to the economy and strengthen domestic supply, while climate concerns remain. City Regulation: The Bank of England and FCA propose easing post-crisis checks, freeing about 140,000 financial-services managers from enhanced screening and focusing annual fitness tests on top executives. Business Costs: Inflation rose to 3.5%, driven partly by fuel, putting pressure on households and firms ahead of the Budget. John Healey says it will target business costs and support entrepreneurs. Jobs and Industry: Amazon plans 30,000 UK entry-level jobs by 2030 as youth unemployment concerns grow. In Telford, artillery and tank-barrel production has restarted after a 20-year gap, rebuilding domestic defence manufacturing.

Budget Pressure: UK inflation rose to 3.5% in September, driven largely by fuel, while government debt topped £3 trillion and borrowing hit £24.5 billion. Ahead of the 28 October Budget, Chancellor John Healey says easing business costs and backing entrepreneurs will be priorities. Banking and Jobs: Barclays’ quarterly profits climbed 12% to £2.3 billion, but the bank plans to cut 5,000 jobs by year-end, with most cuts in support roles and linked to AI savings. Banks are also bracing for a possible tax rise. Energy Investment: The government approved the Jackdaw gas field and announced a £2 billion Energy Wealth Fund for renewable and low-carbon projects, renewing debate over energy security and the transition. Startup Funding: UK university spinouts raised £1.56 billion in the first half of 2026, but research points to a tougher path for early-stage firms seeking their first investment.

Economic Pressure: UK inflation climbed to 3.5% in September, while government borrowing hit £24.5bn and national debt passed £3tn, sharpening pressure on Chancellor John Healey ahead of next week’s Budget. Business groups are urging action on energy and other costs. North Sea Energy: The government approved the Jackdaw gas field, with production expected to start this month. Supporters cite energy security and economic benefits; critics warn the project risks climate goals and investor confidence. Export Growth: UK firms secured £330m in infrastructure contracts in Guinea and Benin, backed by a £1.1bn financing package. Business Investment: The British Business Bank committed £2m to Cambridge Capital Group to expand early-stage funding for UK technology companies. Digital Disruption: A Google Cloud outage disrupted UK banks, courts and delivery services, highlighting businesses’ reliance on a small number of cloud providers. Trade Links: India’s commerce minister met Scotland’s First Minister John Swinney to explore cooperation in semiconductors, renewable energy, data centres and other sectors.

Inflation and Budget: UK inflation rose to 3.5% in September, driven largely by fuel costs, fuelling expectations of higher interest rates. Public borrowing reached £24.5bn and government debt topped £3tn, adding pressure ahead of next week’s Budget. Energy Security: Ministers approved the Jackdaw North Sea gas field, which could lift domestic output by 6% at peak and begin supplying gas this month. The government also announced a £2bn Energy Wealth Fund for the climate transition. Digital Resilience: A Google Cloud outage disrupted UK banks, courts and delivery services, renewing concerns about businesses’ reliance on a handful of providers. Jobs: Unemployment edged down to 4.7%, but vacancies fell to 691,000 and long-term joblessness increased, pointing to a tougher search for work. Business and AI: Microsoft research found a sharp confidence gap: 84% of business leaders think the UK can become a world-leading economy within five years, compared with 41% of employees; more than a third of workers said AI had reduced their job security. Workforce: Amazon pledged 30,000 UK roles for young people, while Flutter plans up to 1,400 job cuts, blaming higher gambling taxes.

Retail: Wickes sales rose 4.5% to £439m in its latest quarter, led by a 6% jump in retail sales and stronger trade demand; the company says mild price inflation is returning. Jobs and pay: Unemployment unexpectedly fell to 4.7%, but vacancies dropped below 700,000 and wage growth slowed to 3.7%, its weakest pace in nearly six years. Budget pressure: Chancellor John Healey’s October 28 Budget looms as small firms delay investment amid uncertainty and UK profit warnings near a two-year high, with rising costs and geopolitical risks cited. Infrastructure: A £181bn electricity network investment plan says it could add £58bn to the economy; a proposed Welsh grid route could unlock £1.3bn in local business spending and support 540 long-term jobs. Business disruption: A Google Cloud outage disrupted UK banks, websites and court services; most customers recovered, while regulators seek answers. Corporate moves: Flutter blamed tax increases as it announced 1,400 job cuts, while Microsoft’s withdrawal from a major UK AI data-centre project highlighted power constraints.