AGP Executive Report

UK Economy: ONS data shows GDP grew 0.4% in July, beating forecasts and extending the run of growth, with services up and AI-linked activity helping. Tourism Levy: Regional mayors are set to get powers to charge an “overnight visitor levy”, with the plan raising fresh alarm for hotels and holidaymakers, and potentially adding around 5% to stays. Middle-Age Jobs: A new index says the UK is worst in the G7 for supporting older workers, with research highlighting difficulties for over-50s returning to employment. Foreign Policy & Trade: The UK will join France and others in banning trade with illegal Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, targeting specific companies and services tied to settlement expansion. Energy Costs: The RAC warns petrol and diesel prices have jumped again, adding about £2.75 to a typical fill-up week-on-week as oil prices react to Middle East tensions. Politics & Money: A crypto billionaire has pledged a record £36m donation to Reform UK, reigniting scrutiny of party funding. Local Planning: Councils face backlash over parking and safety issues in multiple proposals, from B&B plans in Birmingham to road changes in Middleton.

UK-Israel Sanctions: Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband says the UK will ban trade and services tied to Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, targeting specific firms and individuals and coordinating with a wider coalition; Israel has retaliated by closing the British consulate in East Jerusalem and restricting entry for some UK MPs and citizens, while France has also moved to end settlement trade. Bitcoin Finance: Smarter Web plans to issue sterling-denominated, non-voting preferred shares (“MORE”) backed by its Bitcoin treasury, aiming to raise £15m–£25m subject to FCA approval. Growth Watch: The ONS reports UK GDP grew 0.4% in July (and 1.6% year-on-year), with AI and computer programming boosting services, even as rate-hike bets firm up after US inflation data. Retail Pressure: John Lewis Partnership posts a £124m pre-tax loss, with John Lewis sales down and costs rising, and warns the cost of doing business is weighing on hiring and expansion. Tourism Tax Fight: Plans for an overnight visitor levy in England prompt warnings—especially for the Isle of Wight—that higher costs could hit visitor spending and local jobs. Security Threats: MI5’s chief warns the UK faces a more complex threat mix than in 2001, combining terrorism with state-backed risks.

UK economy beat forecasts: The ONS says GDP rose 0.4% in July (after 0.3% in June), driven by services and especially computer programming linked to the AI boom, giving Andy Burnham and chancellor John Healey a pre-Budget lift. Energy grid delay warning: The National Audit Office warns households could face about £100 more a year for energy by the end of the decade if the power grid upgrade slips, with knock-on costs from switching from wind to gas to prevent blackouts. Small business squeeze: A survey finds many UK small firms are delaying growth and cutting investment as energy bills and other costs bite. Labour paternity leave pressure: MPs are urging Burnham to expand statutory paternity leave ahead of the next Budget. Regulatory action on cold calls: Elderly Aids Ltd was fined £190,000 by the ICO for hundreds of thousands of unwanted cold calls. Healthcare deal: PureHealth is taking over parts of Unilabs’ UK lab network via Circle Health Group, expanding diagnostics capacity. Trade sanctions on settlements: The UK says it will ban goods from illegal Israeli settlements and target companies involved in settlement expansion, in step with a wider coalition including France and Canada. Transport investment: Burnham announced a £1bn order for 29 battery-electric TransPennine Express trains to cut journey times and boost capacity. Music industry push: AIM’s Gee Davy calls for an urgent government investigation into the economics of recording and releasing music.

UK Payments Reform: CI&T research finds 82% of payments leaders back the National Payments Vision, but only 29% are very confident it will work, with 349/350 expecting communication problems and executives stressing governance. Tourism Tax Push: England’s planned overnight visitor levy is framed as “proportionality and fairness”, but hospitality warns it could hit competitiveness and jobs, with mayors set to get powers from 2028. AI Economy Risks: Fitch warns an AI stock crash could trigger a US recession and global stagnation, while separate reporting shows “AI boomerang” rehiring is erasing some of the savings from earlier AI-driven cuts. Business & Travel Demand: British Airways’ head of destination partnerships says Caribbean demand is strong and customers are booking further ahead and trading up. Parliament & Policy: The House of Lords backs a digital asset strategy amendment despite Labour opposition, and universities pledge practical work experience for all undergraduates by 2035. Scotland Sector Pressure: Audit Scotland warns colleges face rising deficits and funding strain, while a heritage audit says Scotland’s historic environment contributed £6.1bn to the economy in 2024. Global Trade Warning: Shipping authorities warn of a “two-tier” maritime system as geopolitical tensions drive opacity and shadow fleets.

Retail shake-up: Whitbread’s Beefeater is shutting all 106 UK restaurants today, following Brewers Fayre’s earlier closures, with some sites set to become extra Premier Inn rooms and others sold off—putting around 30,000 jobs across both brands in the spotlight. Fashion e-commerce shift: Primark’s owner Associated British Foods says Primark will launch home delivery across Great Britain, backed by a new automated Sheffield fulfilment site, as it upgrades earnings expectations while like-for-like sales remain under pressure. Household costs: Consumer champion Martin Lewis warns wholesale gas prices have surged, pointing to higher fixed deals and a likely rise in the January Ofgem price cap. Tax-free childcare squeeze: Reports and analysis suggest the £100,000 HMRC childcare “cliff edge” could be raised or softened, after research flags families cutting work or pay rises to avoid losing support. Regional business pulse: Sage data shows East Midlands SMEs leading the UK on profit growth, while Nationwide confirms selected mortgage rates will rise from Thursday ahead of the Bank of England. Energy & geopolitics: Brent crude stays above $100 as Iran expands its Strait of Hormuz restricted zone, adding risk to shipping and costs. Tech for business: Sembly 3.0 targets automated creation of client-ready documents from internal company material, pushing further into the workplace AI race. Hospitality jobs & skills: A watchdog warns Scotland’s colleges face worsening deficits, while a UK hospitality awards list highlights people-focused employers.

UK-Israel Sanctions: Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband’s import ban on goods from “illegal” Israeli West Bank settlements, plus targeted curbs on services financing and construction, is being met with Palestinian praise and Israeli backlash, including Israel’s move to shut the UK consulate in East Jerusalem. Diplomacy vs business impact: A former UK economic attaché said the immediate trade hit may be limited but legislation and knock-on effects could take months, while the wider coalition of 12 countries signals a tougher stance beyond symbolism. Political funding probe: The Met has expanded its criminal investigation into Reform UK over alleged foreign-donation and polling arrangements, following undercover Channel 4 footage, adding pressure on Nigel Farage’s defence. Transport disruption: Nats’ air traffic control failure triggered more than 2,000 flight cancellations and days of recovery, with passengers describing lost baggage and sleeping on airport floors; the chief executive has been given a week to report. Retail jobs: Whitbread’s Beefeater and Brewers Fayre closures are set to shut 106 sites, including Coldra in Newport, with thousands of jobs at risk. Cyber partnership: Acrisure UK and ESET launched a strategic cyber risk and insurance partnership aimed at helping firms prevent, respond and insure incidents. Energy & geopolitics: Oil jumped above $100 as US-Iran tensions escalated, feeding inflation worries for markets. Gambling tax talk: The chancellor is reportedly weighing higher slot machine duty ahead of the October budget, with potential carve-outs for bingo and pubs.

Aviation Disruption: Nats chief Martin Rolfe has been summoned to meet UK transport secretary Heidi Alexander after a second day of flight chaos, with cancellations now topping 1,300; Rolfe says a cyber-attack has been ruled out and apologises, while airlines warn the knock-on effects will keep biting. Middle East Trade & Diplomacy: The UK, France and Canada have moved to ban imports linked to Israeli West Bank settlements, escalating a wider diplomatic rift; Israel says it will close the UK consulate in East Jerusalem and has threatened further retaliation. Public Finance Pressure: The UK paid the highest 30-year gilt yield in nearly 30 years (5.82%) as borrowing costs jump ahead of the October 28 Budget, with investors focused on fiscal uncertainty. Tax & Welfare Debate: Labour-linked thinktank Compass is pushing a 2% wealth tax over £10m and an “Essentials Guarantee” for Universal Credit, alongside proposals for CGT and other reforms. Tech & Jobs: Research warns UK datacentres will create far fewer jobs than tech-industry projections while consuming huge energy, adding fuel to the AI rollout backlash. Business & Community: Scotland’s DRAM Community Pub of the Year went to The Pawn Lounge in Alexandria, praised for backing local charities and events.

West Bank Sanctions Escalation: The UK has announced a ban on imports of goods from Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, plus sanctions on people and firms backing settlement expansion, including construction, financing and real-estate services, and a ban on advertising settlement goods. Diplomatic Fallout: Israel says it will close the UK consulate in Jerusalem and remove UK representatives from a joint military centre, while the US ambassador warns Washington could retaliate against UK firms, potentially affecting business access in US states. Coalition Move: The measures were backed by a 12-country group including France and Canada, with the stated aim of protecting the two-state solution. Public Sector Finance: The Treasury paid the highest interest rate on a 30-year bond since 1998, underscoring pressure on the government’s fiscal room. Space Investment: Britain unveiled a £7.8bn space strategy to improve satellite tracking and protection against collisions, hostile activity and solar storms. Education Warning: OECD PISA 2025 shows reading scores at their lowest since testing began, linked to longer screen time and weaker reading-for-pleasure habits. Local Business Wins: A Malton hotel duty manager won a national award, while multiple Cambridgeshire and Suffolk eateries reached semi-finals in the British Kebab Awards.

Israel-West Bank Sanctions: Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband is set to announce a “reset” of UK policy, with restrictions on trade in goods and some services linked to illegal Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, a move expected to trigger US and Israeli backlash. Wealth Exodus: Hedge fund billionaire Chris Rokos is reportedly leaving the UK for Greece amid fears of autumn Budget tax rises, following Labour moves targeting the super-rich. Jobs & Welfare: The DWP is rolling out “Opening Shift”, offering 2- and 4-week high-street work placements for 18-24-year-old Universal Credit claimants, with retailers pledging 11,300 placements and interviews at the end. Labour Market Signals: KPMG/REC data shows the first rise in permanent hiring in nearly four years, hinting at stabilising demand. Retail Demand: BRC-KPMG says UK retail sales growth slowed to a four-month low in August as shoppers rein in discretionary spending. Education Gap: OECD PISA results show England leading the UK nations in maths, reading and science, with Wales lagging by roughly two years. Tech & Procurement: Connecting Software has been named on G-Cloud 15 for UK Government cloud procurement. Energy & Security: Oil prices edge toward $100 a barrel after attacks on Saudi facilities, while the UK faces renewed scrutiny over cyber risks to critical infrastructure.

JLR Job Cuts: Jaguar Land Rover says it will cut up to 4,000 roles over two years and target £1.7bn in savings as it battles tariffs, competition and “geopolitical uncertainty,” with a voluntary redundancy scheme running until 4 October. Budget Pressure: Chancellor John Healey used his first big speech to stress “strict fiscal discipline” ahead of the 28 October Budget, while warning weak growth must be fixed—at a time when bond-market turmoil is squeezing the government’s spending headroom. Housing & Construction Slump: UK construction output fell again in August for the 20th straight month, with residential building contracting sharply and firms citing weak demand and delayed client decisions. Digital Payments: UK mobile wallet adoption hit 65% of adults in 2025, with contactless and smartphone payments continuing to shift how people pay rather than fully replacing cards. Modern Slavery Rules: The Home Office will let skilled worker visa victims of modern slavery change employer for the rest of their visa from 8 October, aiming to reduce exploitation via sponsorship. Older Workers Alarm: A new warning highlights an “overlooked” jobs crisis for people aged 50 to state pension age, with 2.9m classed as not in education, training, employment or retirement. Israel Trade Move: Ed Miliband is set to announce a ban on trade in goods from illegal Israeli settlements, signalling a tougher UK stance amid rising diplomatic tensions. Wealth Exodus: Hedge fund billionaire Chris Rokos is reported to be leaving the UK for Greece, adding to concerns about tax-driven capital flight. AI Pricing & Work: Commentary flags how AI could enable personalised pricing and even help firms learn what workers will accept—raising fresh ethics and regulation questions. Consumer Culture: Great British Bake Off returns with a new cast and judge line-up, while Emirates unveils an electric Premium Economy privacy screen aimed at business-class comfort without business-class cost.

Jaguar Land Rover Restructuring: Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds has ruled out a JLR bailout as the carmaker prepares a voluntary redundancy programme that could cut 4,000 jobs, with most losses expected in UK non-production roles. Jobs Market Pulse: KPMG and REC report a surge in job seekers in August, even as permanent hiring shows its first modest recovery in nearly four years. Housing Costs & Prices: Lloyds data shows UK house prices fell 0.4% year-on-year in August for the first time since Nov 2023, with buyers holding back amid higher borrowing costs and uncertainty. Northern Growth Funding: The British Business Bank will back a new up-to-£150m Northern scale-up fund for fast-growing firms across the North of England. Budget Tax Tensions: Ahead of Andy Burnham’s first Budget, economists and business groups warn against further tax rises, while London firms urge Healey to avoid extra burdens on the cost of doing business. Manufacturing Supply Strain: Make UK/Bishop Fleming warns family manufacturers face inheritance tax worries and high energy costs, while Fluke research highlights a spare-parts paradox driving maintenance delays. Finance Sector: Standard Life posts better-than-expected half-year profit, boosted by pension risk transfer demand. Payments Glitch Still Manual: A payments modernisation expert says dispute resolution remains slow and manual compared with instant settlement. Politics & Business Trust: Reform UK faces renewed scrutiny after a donations controversy, with internal comments likening the party’s processes to a “pirate ship.” Consumer/Household Relief: Octopus Energy says Burnham’s VAT cut on electricity will save typical households about £45 a year from October.

Insolvency Watch: Nine Greater Manchester firms went into administration in August, with R3 warning that insolvency is rising nationwide after 1,931 corporate insolvencies were recorded in July. Retail & Jobs: Whitbread is shutting all 32 Table Table restaurants across the UK from September 3, with hundreds of roles at risk as it pivots brands and cuts costs. Economy & Growth: Chancellor John Healey says growth must spread beyond big cities as experts warn the UK economy shrank in July, with weak retail and higher household energy costs blamed. Business Climate: Flower farmers are pulling out of markets after record heat wiped out stock, raising concerns that imports will fill the gap. Local Business Stories: A North East bar/restaurant closed suddenly citing “unforeseen circumstances,” while a Leeds doughnut brand opened its first Yorkshire outlet after years of home-kitchen origins. Policy & Politics: Burnham faces pressure over SNP spending on “fake” overseas embassies as the Scottish Government plans to expand its international office network. Health & Legal: A UK coroner ruled influencer Igho “Tiny” Ubiribo died from a pulmonary embolism caused by penis-filler injections. Migration: A migrant “mega-dinghy” carrying 140 people reached the UK after launching from far west Normandy, with arrivals processed at Manston.

NEET Crisis in the North East: A Centre for Social Justice report says the region’s young people not in work or training is costing almost £7bn a year, with around a fifth of 16-24s classed as NEET and pressure building on benefits, tax receipts and public services. Manchester Regeneration Push: North Manchester is set for a £6bn programme of “widescale” improvements, including up to £1.5bn for a major transformation of North Manchester General Hospital, aimed at reversing deindustrialisation impacts. HMRC Mileage Rates: New HMRC advisory fuel rates for petrol and diesel (plus LPG and electric company cars) have come into force, keeping the quarterly system businesses use for mileage reimbursements. Food Provenance Spotlight: Nestlé UK & Ireland launches a 500-mile “Taste Trail” with ultra-runner Rob Pope to connect shoppers with farms and factories, after research found many people don’t know where their food comes from. Local Business Support: BCRS Business Loans appoints a new business development manager in north and mid Wales to help firms access finance. Birmingham Enforcement: Birmingham council fines and closures hit businesses over rodent infestations, hygiene failures and underage alcohol sales. Security & Defence Warning: A former Commons Defence Committee chair warns Britain is “dangerously unprepared” for a growing Russian threat. Energy Debate: A commentary argues the UK should pursue an energy-abundance mix—oil and gas alongside renewables and nuclear—to protect jobs and energy security. Health & Safety Tragedy: British-Nigerian influencer Igho “Tiny” Ubiribo dies after a cosmetic procedure in Thailand, with an inquest linking complications to the fatal outcome.

Local Business Closures: Whitley Bay’s Havana nightspot has shut for good after the lease ended and the landlord sold the building to a developer, leaving regulars reeling. Defence & Industry: Cheap drones are forcing militaries to rethink aerial defence and opening the door for smaller UK firms to innovate faster. Power & Infrastructure Disruption: A fire at a high-voltage substation in Oldham left 147 homes without electricity, with firefighters using dry powder extinguishers. Tax & Company Costs: HMRC has confirmed new advisory fuel rates, including a 16p diesel charge for some company car drivers from September 1. Tech & Competition: Apple faces a proposed £2bn collective action in the UK over app tracking rules, alleging ATT favours Apple’s own ads. Automotive Jobs: Tata-owned Jaguar Land Rover plans a voluntary redundancy programme that could cut around 4,000 UK roles over two years. Politics & Tax Cuts: Reform UK says it would raise the personal allowance to £15,000 within 100 days, while Nigel Farage warns Britain could “go bust” without growth. Retail Pressure: Cardzone has closed its Sheffield store after clearance discounts, citing the wider squeeze on high street leases and footfall. Weather Risk: El Niño is forecast to persist to February, raising the odds of wetter, stormier conditions for the UK.

Banking & Macroeconomy: Qatar National Bank says the Bank of England is likely to stay cautious and data-led as the UK faces weak growth and above-target inflation, with markets watching whether Andy Burnham and John Healey can prove fiscal discipline while pushing investment and industrial renewal. Tax & Cost of Living: HMRC has confirmed new advisory fuel rates for company-car drivers, including a 27p rate for petrol cars over 2000cc, affecting how firms reimburse business mileage. Personal Tax: Reform UK is set to campaign to raise the income tax personal allowance to £15,000 from £12,570, funded via cuts to benefits, foreign aid and net zero schemes. High Street Policy: A Parliamentary petition backed by Spring & Autumn Fair urges a law for 90 minutes of free parking in England’s town and city centres to boost footfall for independent retailers. Retail & Banking Restructuring: Lloyds is scrapping the Halifax brand after 173 years, closing 14 branches in September and rebranding accounts to Lloyds. Business Deals & Growth: Castore, backed by Sir Andy Murray, is exploring a sale after takeover approaches, with JPMorgan reportedly tasked to field interest. Property & Local Economy: A £5.6m North Wales walking link opens next weekend, aiming to boost tourism and local wellbeing for Glan Conwy and Llandudno Junction. Food & Farming: Wales launches Farmstart, a year-long hands-on programme offering land, machinery and training for aspiring farmers and growers. Climate Impact on Housing: UK insurers report a surge in subsidence claims after the hottest summer on record, with Hastings Direct citing nearly a 140% jump in August.

UK Politics & Gibraltar: Ministers will attend conferences for seven UK parties, with Gibraltar hosting a stand plus receptions and meetings with MPs, officials and business figures. Health & Science: Liverpool has launched a £20m high-security AI lab (ECHO) to speed drug and vaccine discovery for infectious diseases, aiming to open fully in 2027. Labour & Migration: New RCN and UNISON reporting alleges migrant NHS and social care workers are exploited via employer-tied visas, debt and low pay, with repayment clauses flagged. Employment Compliance: Government “name and shame” lists include hundreds of firms accused of underpaying staff minimum wage, with enforcement powers now in place. Business Costs & Finance: Offshore Energies UK urges a firm North Sea tax date ahead of Budget, warning investor confidence is being eroded by uncertainty. Energy Investment: EY says foreign energy investment projects in the UK more than halved in 2025, with oil and gas deals especially weak. Food Security: The National Audit Office warns Defra hasn’t prepared enough for food supply shocks as climate, disease and cyber risks rise. Local Economy: Sutton Coldfield completes a £35.9m later-living housing scheme, while Wolverhampton council moves to buy land to expand a major regeneration. Falklands Row: Argentina’s Milei threatens sanctions on oil firms near the Falklands, escalating a sovereignty dispute involving the UK.