AGP Executive Report

Labour Leadership Shake-up: Andy Burnham has been confirmed as Labour leader and is set to become the UK’s next prime minister on Monday, promising “hope back” and more power for regions, with business groups watching for a pro-growth agenda. Public Finances Warning: The IMF has urged Burnham to avoid a spending binge, prioritising spending cuts and lower borrowing to prevent an economic collapse. Steel Nationalisation Fallout: The UK has taken full public ownership of British Steel, while China’s commerce ministry says the move violates investment rights and could hit confidence in UK investment. Small Business Pressure: A Federation of Small Businesses survey finds only 18% of small firms expect growth, the lowest since 2014, with tax burden and labour costs blamed. Health and Work: A study suggests obesity could be keeping over 600,000 people out of work, raising concerns about long-term economic losses. Energy Drink Clampdown: England will ban sales of high-caffeine energy drinks to under-16s from next year, with retailers and local authorities tasked with enforcement. Trade Deal Boost: India-UK CETA is expected to sharply expand Indian exports to the UK, with tariffs cut across most categories. Local Housing Fight: Liverpool has launched a crackdown on HMOs, aiming to limit concentrations and protect family housing.

Labour Leadership: Andy Burnham, the “King of the North”, was confirmed as Labour leader and is set to become the UK’s next prime minister on Monday, promising a “rebalancing of power” away from Westminster and a pro-business approach aimed at regions and “forgotten places”. Banking & Consumer Finance: Lloyds Banking Group says it has been named Euromoney’s UK Best Bank for 2026, highlighting support for 28 million customers and investment in digital tools. Fraud Crackdown: Ofcom ordered UK operators to block mobile messaging scams, aiming to close gaps exploited by criminals. Crime & Finance: Three men were jailed in the UK for a £4m crypto fraud after posing as police officers to steal victims’ holdings. Local Enforcement: Bury Council pledged zero tolerance on illicit vape and “dodgy shop” trading linked to organised crime, while North Lincolnshire flagged 38 convenience stores of concern. Trade & Growth: India–UK CETA took effect, removing tariffs on about 99% of tariff lines and boosting export prospects. Energy & Industry: China condemned the UK’s nationalisation of British Steel, warning it violates investor rights. Business Costs: The Low Pay Commission was urged to factor employment cost pressures into future National Living Wage and National Minimum Wage rates.

Workplace Rights: One in five UK employers provide no sexual harassment training for managers, just as new Employment Rights Act duties raise the bar from 1 October. Equal Pay Crackdown: Government launches a 15-week equal pay consultation to “root out” unfairness, including stronger enforcement and limits on outsourcing to avoid pay discrimination. Employment Tribunals: England and Wales tribunal backlogs are stretching disputes into years, raising long-running legal and reputational risk for employers. Construction Cashflow: Saible, a Birmingham fintech, raises £2.9m to stop late payment by releasing project funds across the supply chain via a trust-backed platform. Trade & Growth: UK trade deficit narrows to £1.04bn in May; manufacturing output edges up 0.1% and manufacturing growth accelerates. Energy Drinks Ban: England will ban high-caffeine energy drinks for under-16s from April 2027, with fines for retailers. Food Safety Enforcement: Warrington council seizes 37 litres of illegal Indian ghee, warning businesses to check import rules. Business Sentiment: Small business growth forecasts hit a 12-year low, with construction, retail and hospitality most pessimistic. Politics & Economy: Andy Burnham is set to take Labour leadership and promises “unashamedly Labour” policies, as GDP growth remains fragile at 0.1% in May. Local Business Planning: Wales urged to tackle a “succession gap” as only 16% of SMEs have considered long-term ownership transitions.

Falklands/FIFA Row: The UK has formally urged FIFA to investigate Argentina after players displayed a “Las Malvinas son Argentinas” banner in the World Cup semi-final, with Business Secretary Peter Kyle calling it “entirely inappropriate” and Downing Street stressing the Falklands’ sovereignty remains unchanged. UK Economy: Official data shows GDP grew 0.1% in May, led by services, but production and construction fell, underlining a fragile recovery as Iran-related disruption lifts costs. British Steel Nationalisation: The government has taken British Steel fully into public ownership from Chinese owner Jingye to protect UK steelmaking capacity and jobs, with restructuring and investment plans now set. India-UK CETA: The India-UK Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement has come into force, with Modi calling it a milestone for farmers, MSMEs and innovation, and analysts pointing to near-zero duty access for most Indian exports. Energy/Defence: BAE Systems delivered the first UK-made artillery barrel forgings to Ukraine, while the solar industry urged the new PM to keep backing clean energy investment. Business & Tech: PayFit expanded its AI-augmented payroll/HR service; Sokin launched checkout and payment links for UK businesses; and Coventry University said sustainability is now an essential business graduate skill.

UK-India Trade Shockwave: The India–UK CETA comes into force, with zero-duty access for nearly 99% of Indian exports and tariff cuts for UK goods like Scotch whisky and cars, alongside a social security deal for temporary assignments—officials say it could double bilateral trade by 2030. Gibraltar Border Reset: Spain–Gibraltar land border checks are lifted after 118 years, but British arrivals will face fingerprinting as part of post-Brexit controls, reshaping daily cross-border commuting. Public Finances Pressure: A Resolution Foundation report warns the next UK prime minister faces a roughly £330bn-a-year fiscal gap driven by weak growth and ageing, urging pension and fuel-duty reforms. Fraud Fight: Cifas joins the Global Signal Exchange to share scam signals faster across borders, aiming to disrupt online fraud at scale. NHS Tech Deal: Alcidion wins another UK NHS contract as the health service continues its long push to digitise hospital systems. Local Business Pulse: A West Midlands district is named a top hotspot for independent cafés, with independents making up 95.3% of coffee shops. Water Stress: Hosepipe bans expand across parts of England and exemptions are clarified for specific groups and circumstances.

UK-India Trade Deal: The India-UK CETA/FTA came into force on 15 July, with zero-duty access for nearly 99% of Indian exports and a social security agreement starting the same day, aiming to boost jobs and bilateral trade. Renewables & Fuel Compliance: Morgan Fuels & Lubes in Northern Ireland has been approved as an RFAS-verified renewable fuel supplier, strengthening traceability and carbon reporting for customers. Business Finance & Markets: The FTSE 100 edged down as Middle East tensions lifted oil and hit precious metals miners, while investors digested shifting growth warnings. Cybersecurity & AI Security: Sophos launched Sophos Fusion, positioning it as an AI-native, coordinated defence system to tackle faster, cross-tool attacks. Stablecoins & Tokenisation: The US and UK unveiled a roadmap to align regulation for tokenized assets and stablecoins, including a cross-border pilot under coordinated oversight. Local Growth & Jobs: Everflow secured £44m from BGF and OakNorth to expand into telecoms across the UK, backing its multi-utility model for SMEs. Public Services Funding: The BBC faced fresh scrutiny as licence-fee income has fallen sharply in real terms, with leaders warning the current model may not sustain its universal remit. Sports Sponsorship Rules: Everton risks losing unlicensed betting sponsor Stake if new DCMS rules ban promotion by firms without Gambling Commission licences.

Gibraltar Border Deal: The EU and UK have formally signed the Gibraltar agreement, removing routine land-border checks between Spain and the territory and easing daily movement for about 15,500 cross-border workers. UK-EU Relations: The move follows years of post-Brexit friction and is framed as securing Gibraltar’s long-term economic future. Stablecoins & Capital Markets: The US and UK Treasury departments published recommendations from the Transatlantic Taskforce for Markets of the Future, aiming to reduce frictions and clarify tokenized finance, alongside a joint stablecoin statement. Brexit Politics: Rachel Reeves used her Mansion House speech to argue the UK must stay close to Europe, saying Brexit damaged relations and growth. Food Tech Regulation: The UK Food Standards Agency issued new guidance to help businesses navigate approvals for cell-cultivated products via a sandbox programme. Retail Watch: The BRC reported UK retail sales up 1.9% year-on-year in June, with heatwave and World Cup boosting demand, while warning costs and business rates still squeeze investment. Climate & Infrastructure: A former environment secretary warned the UK’s water crisis could cost lives without urgent upgrades to ageing dams, aqueducts and canals. Energy Security: The Bank of England governor warned Iran-related conflict risks could threaten stability as markets react.

World Cup cashflow: England’s semi-final vs Argentina is forecast to pump about £455m into the UK economy, with £356.5m expected from retail and £98.3m from pubs and hospitality as fans spend on food, drink and match-day gear. Retail disruption: Tesco says it will close Express stores early across England at 7.30pm if England reach the final, so staff can watch the match. Consumer fraud crackdown: Edinburgh Trading Standards seized nine tonnes of fake World Cup shirts worth £5.5m, targeting counterfeit supply chains ahead of peak demand. Business slowdown: BDO reports UK business activity fell to a four-year low in June, with its Output Index dropping to 91.53, pointing to weaker demand and cautious hiring. Finance regulation: The FCA proposes simplifying asset-manager reporting via a new framework (FRAME) to cut costs and reduce confusion, aiming to save firms £128m a year. Crypto tax shift: HMRC has confirmed a no gain/no loss approach from April 6, 2027 for crypto loans and liquidity pools, delaying CGT until sale or exchange. Telecoms shake-up: Billionaire investors Xavier Niel and Sunil Mittal are reshaping ownership at Vodafone and BT, raising expectations of tougher cost discipline.

Business Energy Crunch: CBI and Energy UK warn incoming PM Andy Burnham must cut business electricity costs on day one, saying prices sit ~45% above the G7 median and 2.7m firms face hikes; they argue action could unlock £130bn growth by 2050. Business Rates Fight: A coalition backs a “hybrid” reform that taxes all online sales at 2% to fund a 37% cut for bricks-and-mortar firms, targeting the “broken and unsustainable” rates system. SME Hiring Pressure: The British Chambers of Commerce says 73% of firms (mostly SMEs) struggle to recruit, with training investment lagging as costs rise. Foreign Takeovers: ONS data shows foreign investors increased the number of UK companies they control by 35% since 2020, with transaction values up 85% in a year. Medical Research Gap: The Academy of Medical Sciences says UK medical science excellence isn’t translating into better outcomes for enough people, with the “bridge” workforce ageing. Agriculture Distress: Shakespeare Martineau reports 11 ag firms entered administration in the first half of 2026, the highest since 2010. AI & Law: Nearly 200 economists and tech leaders urge fast action on AI risks, including job displacement. Cricket Leadership: Brendon McCullum apologised after being sacked as England Test coach, accepting results weren’t good enough. Cyber Scam Alert: North East England Chamber of Commerce warns members about fake emails meant to damage its reputation.

India-UK Trade Deal: From July 15, the India–UK FTA/CETA will cut import duties to zero for all Indian goods headed to Britain, with extra relief for Indian professionals via a “double contribution” social security exemption for up to five years. High Street Pressure: Shopkeepers are urging incoming PM Andy Burnham to overhaul business rates, proposing a hybrid model with a levy on online sales and a cut for bricks-and-mortar retailers. Business Slowdown: BDO says UK business activity fell sharply in June as consumer demand stayed weak, confidence slipped and costs rose, with the Output Index hitting its lowest since early 2021. Cyber Sanctions: The UK and EU jointly sanctioned alleged Russia-linked hackers tied to cyberattacks on critical infrastructure, with the NCSC warning firms to tighten router and password security. Tokenisation Push: The UK unveiled a cross-industry taskforce to scale tokenisation in wholesale financial markets, aiming to move from pilots to live markets and boost annual output. Heat & Housing Health Risk: Oxfordshire County Council warns heatwaves are worsening health inequalities where homes lack cooling adaptations, backing a proposed Cool Homes Grant. Pub Sector Culture: A UK-wide pub crawl hit 10,000 stops in Edinburgh, highlighting how hospitality remains a social and media draw even as costs bite.

Export Finance Boost: Rachel Reeves has announced a joint UK Export Finance and British Business Bank scheme launching next spring to help thousands of smaller exporters access working-capital finance, using a portfolio guarantee model to reduce lender risk. Skills for Manufacturing SMEs: Enginuity and the Confederation of British Metalforming (CBM) have signed an MoU to strengthen engineering and manufacturing skills pipelines, with a focus on employer engagement and workforce development. Energy Costs Pressure (Germany, UK angle): Germany plans a strategic gas reserve equivalent to 10% of storage capacity, funded via consumer levies—expected to raise household bills and add strain to energy-intensive industry, a reminder of how energy policy feeds competitiveness. Trade Deal in Practice (India-UK FTA): The India-UK free trade agreement starts July 15, cutting tariffs on most goods; analysts warn real gains depend on standards, certification, logistics and buyer networks. Local Economy & Community: Sheffield College fine art students helped create a mural for Sheffield Chamber of Commerce; and a Newcastle University worker highlighted a STEP Ukraine programme said to add £31.5m to the UK economy. Workplace Health Warning: Doctors say poorly executed disciplinary investigations cost the UK economy £28.5bn a year and harm wellbeing.

Energy & Grid Stability: Britain’s biggest community solar farm in north Devon has been ordered to shut for the summer after fears it could overload the local grid, with an estimated £2m hit to nearly 10,000 members. Immigration & Work Rules: New UK immigration rules for work, study and family visas are being rolled out in phases, including tougher deportation measures for foreign offenders and tighter requirements for applicants, employers, universities and sponsors. Trade & Migration Finance: The India-UK free trade deal starts July 15, cutting import duties to zero for Indian goods, while a “double contribution” social security arrangement will redirect 25% of salary contributions into Indian Provident Fund accounts for eligible workers. Business & Competition: Associated British Foods is moving ahead with its £75m Hovis takeover, creating a new bread group after regulator concerns about consumer choice were addressed. Economy Outlook: Rachel Reeves faces fresh pressure as forecasters expect UK GDP to be flat or slightly down in May, with the Iran conflict and high energy costs weighing on services. Regional Inequality: A Resolution Foundation report says regional household income gaps have barely shifted since 1997, urging real devolution and major investment in transport and housing. Local Business & Community: Pubs and match venues in England’s World Cup quarter-final faced disruption and abuse, with at least one pub stopping coverage for safety reasons.

World Cup Business & National Mood: Jude Bellingham’s extra-time heroics sent England into the semi-finals after a 2-1 win over Norway in Miami, with fresh controversy swirling around the build-up to England’s equaliser and VAR calls. SME Finance: Rachel Reeves is set to unveil expanded support for small businesses, including a bigger Growth Guarantee Scheme that boosts government-backed lending. Banking & Startups: NatWest launches a £100,000 pitch competition in Wolverhampton, aiming to widen access to funding and mentoring for early-stage founders. Transport & Aviation Costs: Two ageing British Airways Boeing 777-200ERs were forced to return to Heathrow after technical issues, disrupting US-bound flights and passengers. Retail Regeneration: Bristol’s long-derelict St Catherine’s Place shopping centre is undergoing a £10m transformation after years of decline, with a mixed-use redevelopment planned. AI in Public Services: The NHS confirms it will use AI in its app to triage patients and route them to the right care, reaching 200,000 users over the next year. Policy & Safety: Labour confirms a law change restricting marketing terms for self-driving vehicles to prevent misleading claims. Immigration & Travel: The UK updates visa rules and publishes lists of countries needing entry clearance for short stays.

Retail Expansion: M&S is opening its biggest-ever standalone food store in Godalming, Surrey (22,000 sq ft) next week, adding a larger bakery and a new kitchen shop, plus a second large format food store in Dorset. Mortgage Pressure: The Bank of England warns around five million homeowners could face higher mortgage repayments by end-2028, with typical rises of about £45 for some expiring fixed deals. Immigration Overhaul: The UK has unveiled major changes to work, study and family visa rules, including tighter deportation triggers and a new requirement to review immigration burdens every five years. Start-up Boom: UK startup applications hit a new high as more founders choose limited companies, helped by faster digital registration and compliance reminders. Business Costs & Services: Morrisons is bringing back Market Street meat and fish counters across a confirmed list of stores after last year’s rollbacks. Tech & Risk: UK regulators move to oversee cloud providers, while a separate report flags growing phone-signal problems affecting everyday connectivity. Policy & Pensions: MPs face renewed pressure over pension adequacy as auto-enrolment assumptions clash with changing work and housing patterns.

Housing & Cost of Living: HMRC says UK tax debt hit £44.7bn by end-March 2026, as new liabilities outpaced collections, while the Bank of England warns mortgage payments will rise for 5m+ borrowers on fixed-rate renewals, with Iran-linked rate pressures a key driver. Hiring & Labour Market: KPMG/REC data shows employers are leaning more on temporary staff in June while still holding back on permanent recruitment, citing uncertainty and cost pressures. Business Finance & Markets: London IPOs picked up in H1 2026 with £577m raised across seven listings, though AI-stock volatility still makes flotations harder. AI & Cyber Risk: UK AI Security Institute research says OpenAI’s latest model could be vulnerable to jailbreaks that may enable cyber misuse, underlining the need for stronger guardrails. Retail & High Streets: Stationery chain TG Jones is closing its Stirling branch today as part of a rescue plan that will shutter 150 sites. Public Sector & Spending Outlook: The OBR flags worsening long-term fiscal sustainability, projecting debt on an unsustainable path in most scenarios. Defence & Industry: MoD awards £3.16m to develop low-cost drone interceptors, aiming to support SMEs and boost European air-defence capacity.

Business Awards & Local Growth: Suffolk businesses are celebrated at the EADT Business Awards 2026, with organisers highlighting how awards can help decision-makers see the scale of regional ambition. Air Travel & Network Strategy: British Airways plans 93 daily long-haul departures between July and December 2026, serving 77 destinations, with route changes including endings of several long-haul services from London Gatwick. Retail & Consumer Demand: UK footfall fell in June as the record heatwave kept shoppers indoors, with high streets hit hardest and Scotland the only nation to see an increase. Finance & Resilience: The Treasury designates major cloud providers (Microsoft, Google, AWS and Oracle) as critical third parties, bringing Bank of England and FCA/PRA oversight for financial-sector resilience. Payments & Partnerships: Booker expands its American Express acceptance across branches and online, letting customers earn Membership Rewards points. Energy & Community Power: OurCoop and Octopus-backed Younity pushes Community Energy Fortnight with new products to boost community-generated power and share value with members. Northern Ireland Investment: Invest NI support helped secure £41m of investment in the Fermanagh and Omagh area and is linked to job creation. Tech & Security: A facial recognition system is set to alert police in real time in more than 100 UK shops, raising civil liberties concerns. Labour Market & Skills: The government publishes a list of occupations in critical demand, while business confidence slips to an 18-month low amid cost pressures and tax uncertainty. World Cup Economics: England’s quarter-final vs Norway in Miami is under delay fears from extreme weather, while the match is also forecast to boost UK hospitality spending. Politics & Donations: Met Police investigate £500,000 in Reform UK donations linked to a convicted criminal’s mother, spotlighting money-handling scrutiny. Transport Policy: MPs consider whether England should adopt a default 20mph speed limit, weighing road safety gains against political backlash. M&A: Marex agrees to buy Singapore clearing business Bright Point International to expand in Asia-Pacific.